Holy Crap! Ricardo Martinelli Leading in Polls By 13% !!
(Panama-Guide.com) - That's a huge lead, and much larger than I expected. According to polling data released last night, in a poll taken between 2-4 January 2009 by Dichter y Neira, Ricardo Martinelli from the Cambio Democratico political party is now pulling 44% of adults who intend to vote, compared to 31% for Balbina Herrera from the ruling Partido Revolucionario Democratico (PRD) political party. In this poll Martinelli increased his lead over Herrera by four points while support for Herrera remained static (no change.) Juan Carlos Varela from the Panameñista party dropped from 18% to 14%. So, it would probably be fairly safe to conclude the additional four points picked up by Martinelli in this poll most likely reflects the shift of people changing their support from Varela to Martinelli. Guillermo Endara still barely registers a pulse at 2%. (more)
More Good News For Martinelli: These results are obviously a continuation of more good news for the campaign of Ricardo Martinelli. On the other hand, it's terrible news for both Balbina Herrera and Juan Carlos Navarro. Everyone all around the room is saying "the only poll that matters is the one that will be taken on 3 May 2009." Yeah, right. That's what you have to say, because they can't say what they are really thinking - "Holy shit, we're screwed..." Starting this week TVN Channel 2 together with Dichter y Neira will be providing polling data every week. And don't forget to keep an eye on the election countdown clock - Balbina Herrera has only 115 days left to close this 13% gap. No easy task, especially considering her support peaked a few months ago when she won the PRD primary. If you see anybody running down the streets in their underwear don't be alarmed - that's just PRD guys who have stripped off their uniforms and are running away in the face of impending doom (they tend to do that kind of thing in situations like this...)
Back In 2004: In a poll taken on 19 January 2004 Martin Torrijos led with 49% and Guillermo Endara reflected 30%. A few weeks later in early February 2004 CID-Gallup conducted a simulated vote, and Martin Torrijos won with 42% of the vote. In the actual election he eventually came away with 47% of the vote and Guillermo Endara got 30%. So, as you can see polling data from January and February can be a fairly accurate reflection of what might happen in May 2009. One poll (from Jan 2004) had Torrijos above his actual results at 49%, and the next (Feb 2004) had him below. Interestingly enough, the results for the second place finisher Guillermo Endara were spot on at 30%.
And The Winner Is: Ricardo Martinelli. I don't envision practically any scenario in which Balbina Herrera or either of the other two "also ran" candidates will be able to close this gap in the next 115 days. Of course this is politics and anything can happen. There's always the possibility of something totally unexpected happening that could change the momentum one way or the other. But, lacking something truly significant and monumental, if things remain on the course they are headed now, Martinelli wins this election by a comfortable margin. Expect more rats to depart sinking ships between now and May - it's simply the way of things around here.
